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Outs in Poker |
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A card that gives you
the better hand is
called „out“. If you
know how many outs you
have, you can estimate
the odds to win and
decide how to proceed
with your hand. You only
need two small tools: |
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The deck of
cards
Such a deck consists of
52 cards. You only know
7 of those 52 cards (the
two hole and the five
community cards on the
board). You know 5 of
those 52 cards on the
flop, on the turn 6 and
on the river 7. |
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The deck is divided into
four suits (spades,
diamonds, clubs and
hearts) which add up to
four times 13 cards.
There are four cards of
each kind, for instance
four aces, four tens,
four fours etc. |
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In order to find out the
amount of outs, you need
to know how many of
those cards would give
you the best hand. If
you have AK and you
think you’ll win if an
ace or king appears on
the turn or river then
you have got six outs.
(Three from the four
remaining aces plus
three from the four
remaining kings.) |
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If you have 44 and
there's no four on the
flop you need another 4
to win. You already have
two fours thus there are
two fours still left in
the deck. Therefore, you
have two outs. |
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Now you have 98 and the
flop is 76A. How many
outs do you have? Every
ten gives you a straight
as well as every five.
There are four cards
each left in the deck,
giving you 8 outs. |
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If you have suited hole
cards like 87 of
diamonds and there are
two of these suits in
the flop, then you have
a so-called flush draw.
There are 13 cards of
one suit, the player
already has four of
them: 13 – 4 = 9. 9
cards give you the flush
thus you have 9 outs. |
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This isn't that
difficult, is it? Just
remember how a card deck
looks like and then
count the cards that
would improve your hand
significantly. |
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The chance of
winning |
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If you know your outs,
you also know the
likelihood of hitting
one of those outs. Of
course it's more likely
to hit 15 outs than just
2. |
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There's an easy way to
find out your chances of
winning, the so-called
„2 and 4 rule“: |
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You take the amount of
your outs and multiply
them by 2 to find out
the percentage to hit
one of your outs with
the next card. For
instance, you have 9
outs on the turn and you
want to know how likely
it is to make your hand
on the river. 9 x 2 = 18
%. That means that you
hit your outs 18 % of
the time and miss 82 %
of the time. With 4 outs
there's an 8 % chance,
with 15 outs, 30 %, and
so on. |
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This rule is only true
if there's one card to
come. Supposing, you're
on the turn with 9 outs,
you have an 18 % chance
of improving. Or if
you're on the flop with
9 outs, you hit one of
your outs on the turn
(!) 18 % of the time. |
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But if you're sitting on
the flop and there are
two cards to come you
can hit your outs twice
(on the turn and the
river). Then the
calculation changes and
you have to multiply
your outs by four
(completing the 2 and 4
rule). |
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Supposing your opponent
is moving all-in on the
flop and you're on a
draw. You have to know
the amount of outs and
the chance of winning.
If you want to know your
chance of winning from
the flop to the river
you have to multiply
your outs by 4 (instead
of 2). |
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If you have a flush draw
on the flop and want to
know the likelihood of
being ahead on the
river, you take your 9
outs and multiply them
by 4, giving you a 36 %
chance of winning. |
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Supposing you opponent
puts you all-in on the
flop, making sure that
you see both the turn
and the river card and
you have an inside
straight draw plus one
over card, giving you 7
outs. 7 x 4 = 28 %. |
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To sum it up:
Chance of winning with
the next card:
Outs x 2
Chance of winning with
the next two cards:
Outs x 4 |
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